Work package 5
Project
components and their interpendencies
Econometric
and other empirical issues
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Leading institution:
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The task
focuses on a number of econometric improvements to made in respect to the
existing estimation or calibration of models on which UrbanSim is based:
- household
location model should be consistent with variable size of potential locations, husband's
and wife's respective preferences and constraints (current and potential labour
place); the location decision should be modelled simultaneously with the
decisions to live in a house/a regular flat/a low-price (social) housing (e.g.
HLM in France), and to buy or rent the dwelling;
- consider
firms rather than jobs as the decision unit for jobs location; decompose the
evolution of the number of jobs at a given place in : variation in the number
of jobs in each existing firm; firms relocation; births and deaths of firms;
- for the
land use model, instead of estimating transitions probabilities from one usage
to another, develop and estimate a model of generation of projects of a given
type and size, and estimate a location model for these projects given the
constraints imposed by their type and size.
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UCP
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WP
5 will also investigate the possibility to estimate interrelated decisions
entering different work packages (For example, life cycle effects in the car
ownership and location decision process). However, difficulty to access the
needed panel data will add to the difficulties raised by the theory of dynamic decisions.