 |
|
||||||||||
Work package 4
Project components and their interpendencies
Framework UrbanSimE
Demographic Model
|
Leading institution: |
|
|
The current implementation of UrbanSim uses a micro-simulation database
containing individual households and persons. However, the system lacks models
to simulate annual changes in the composition and characteristics of households
that reflects dynamics of birth, death, household formation, household
dissolution, etc. Instead, households are synthesized to meet aggregate control
totals by sampling and duplicating existing households. This is not adequate,
however, for modelling the spatial-temporal dynamics in the housing market and
labour market arising from ongoing demographic change. Demographic
micro-simulation models are used for a variety of policy and other research purposes.
These models will be instrumental to inform the development of a demographic
module within the UrbanSim system, with specific adaptation to the European
context. One component that has been recently added to the Open Platform for Urban
Simulation is a household synthesizer, which creates an initial base-year
population representing individual households and persons. This module will be adapted
to deal with data available in European cities.
The demographic module should provide accurate predictions of the evolution of the total number of households of each type at the regional level for each year. These predictions are based on a microsimulation model that can explain births, deaths, marriages and other unions, divorce and other union disruptions, children leaving their parents' home, as well as immigration, emigration. This module will interact with the other modules in the sense that the above-mentioned demographic events may be influenced by labour supply, local or regional economic conditions such as labour market or real estate market. The demographic model may also improve the modelling of the influence of the regional demographic evolution on the other modules in UrbanSim. |
INED |
The WP provides the man power to co-ordinate the project and its results on an on-going basis with regards to substantive results, as well as with respect to the administrative matters. The coordination of the various parallel and sequential activities requires great care. The work package will collate the results and supports the partners in their publication on the web and beyond.
Wichtiger Hinweis:
Diese Website wird in älteren Versionen von Netscape ohne
graphische Elemente dargestellt. Die Funktionalität der
Website ist aber trotzdem gewährleistet. Wenn Sie diese
Website regelmässig benutzen, empfehlen wir Ihnen, auf
Ihrem Computer einen aktuellen Browser zu installieren. Weitere
Informationen finden Sie auf
folgender
Seite.
Important Note:
The content in this site is accessible to any browser or
Internet device, however, some graphics will display correctly
only in the newer versions of Netscape. To get the most out of
our site we suggest you upgrade to a newer browser.
More
information
!!! This document is stored in the ETH Web archive and is no longer maintained !!!
